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Previous research has not specified the circumstances under which foreign aid may increase the probability of armed conflict. The purpose of this dissertation is to address this gap by employing a theoretical framework in which foreign aid produces incentives for a rent-seeking scramble among elites. A set of conditions affecting the likelihood of armed conflict are identified and tested on global data in a series of statistical analyses. Paper I argues and finds that foreign aid increases the probability of armed conflict in states where there are few constraints on executive power, allowing for a scramble for rents. Paper II proposes and finds a threshold effect of aid, such that the likelihood of armed conflict increases only when aid has reached a certain level. Paper III suggests and demonstrates that sudden negative changes in aid flows enhance the risk of armed conflict as well as coup attempts, as aid shortfalls accelerate distributional conflict over aid rents. Paper IV claims and shows that civil wars are less likely to be terminated by settlement in the form of elections when conflict parties are dependent on rents. In sum, this dissertation contributes by theoretically specifying and empirically identifying conditions under which foreign aid increases the probability of armed conflict.

A total of 111 armed conflicts have been recorded for the years 1989-2000. Of these, 33 were active in 2000. This represents a decrease from 1999 and 1998, and it is the lowest number of armed conflicts recorded in the post-Cold War period. Seven interstate armed conflicts were recorded for the whole period, of which two were still active in 2000. The decrease in the number of armed conflicts is not sufficient to conclude that there will be a further decline. Conflicts have become increasingly complex in terms of number of actors and regional connections between those actors. There is a larger proportion of new and minor armed conflicts being resolved than long-running and complex major armed conflicts.

In 2000, there were 25 conflicts in 23 locations throughout the world. Both the number of major armed conflicts & the number of conflict locations in 2000 were slightly lower than in 1999. As has been the case during most of the past 11-year period, the vast majority of major armed conflicts in 2000 occurred in Africa & in Asia. All of the major armed conflicts registered in 1990-2000 were internal, with three exceptions: Iraq vs Kuwait, India vs Pakistan, & Eritrea vs Ethiopia. Other states contributed regular troops to one side or the other in 12 of the internal conflicts. 1 Table. Adapted from the source document.

A total of 110 armed conflicts have been recorded for the years 1989-99. Of these, 37 were active in 1999. This is the same number as in 1998 but an increase from 1997, after an overall decline in the number of conflicts per year since 1992. Seven interstate armed conflicts were recorded for the whole period, of which two were still active in 1999. Contrary to a common assumption that conflicts normally escalate gradually from minor armed conflicts, no such clear pattern is found. Peace agreement is the least common type of conflict termination in 1989-99.

A total of 108 armed conflicts has been recorded for the years 1989-98. Of these, 36 were active in 1998. This marks an increase from 1997, after an overall decline in the number of conflicts per year since 1992. The number of wars nearly doubled in 1998, after a marked decrease that had also started in 1992. Most wars took place in Africa. Seven interstate armed conflicts were recorded for the whole period, of which two were active in 1998.

A total of 103 armed conflicts has been recorded for the years 1989-97. Of these, 33 were active in 1997. Six interstate armed conflicts were recorded for the period, of which one was active in 1997. The period exhibits a decline in total number of conflicts per year; a decline is also found in all regions with the exception of Africa. All new conflicts in 1996 and 1997 took place in Africa. More than half of the conflicts was linked to conflicts in neighbouring states. Regional conflict complexes were found in all regions, but were particularly significant in Europe and in Africa, where they also reached high levels of intensity.

Analyzes 103 armed conflicts, 33 of which were active in 1997, finding a decline in total number of conflicts per year and in all regions with the exception of Africa; some focus on regional distribution of armed conflicts.